It was ugly, but one game is one game, and it's worth noting that the Titans committed a whopping five turnovers compared to Houston's one. Turnover luck is unlikely to break so badly against Tennessee this week, and as a three-point favorite in the betting markets, the Titans are actually one of the safer picks of the week. If that point spread holds, Tennessee looks fairly valued, and Miami doesn't have a great profile as an upset pick. It's been a Jekyll-and-Hyde season so far for the Ravens, who outscored their first two opponents by a combined , then got outscored by a combined in their past two games.
Unsurprisingly, the recency bias-influenced public isn't touching Baltimore in this game. However, Oakland hasn't impressed in its past two games either, and with QB Derek Carr out, the Raiders are less than a field goal favorite right now.
If you want to take a gamble on an upset pick, the Ravens will provide a nice reward if they can pull it off. Both the betting markets and our models view this game as very close to a toss-up. The Colts have been a volatile team so far this year, outperforming expectations in two home games and then getting blown out in two road losses. Remember that changes in betting lines and public picking trends may have happened since this post was originally published, thus changing the Week 5 landscape.
To get all the latest data and see the picks that make the most sense for your specific pool, check out our Football Pool Picks , which we update multiple times per day. Last week was a great one for our survivor picks , as we advised nearly all of our premium customers to avoid Atlanta and Dallas, and both of those teams lost.
This week, you need to be prepared for possible carnage in survivor leagues. We've been tracking win odds and public picking data for nearly NFL weeks now, and going in, this week has the fourth-highest number of expected survivor entry eliminations. Whether that plays out will depend in large part on the outcomes of the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia games. As we always stress, maximizing your odds to win a survivor pool isn't only about giving yourself the best chance to survive the current week.
Rather, you need to consider three things about every possible pick: Win odds higher is better , popularity lower is better , and future value lower is better. In Week 5, here are some factors to consider about the most popular picks so far:. The calculus of whether to pick Pittsburgh looks somewhat similar, as well. Still, as an 8.
So, you are sacrificing a lot if you take the Steelers this week. There's a big increase in risk once you take Pittsburgh out of the picture, though according to the betting markets the Eagles are the next-safest team of the week as 6. Our models are more pessimistic about their chances to beat the Cardinals. If you place your full trust in the betting market odds, you are indeed buying yourself a bit of safety with the Eagles, but their high pick popularity compared to other alternatives is a significant negative.
Still, Vegas odds have New England as the third-most likely team to win in Week 5. Members login to the website directly to make their picks. No more error-ridden or illegible pick sheets. No more tabulating strikes and who has been eliminated. Pool standings are automatically updated. No more need to distribute standings. Members simply login to the site to see updates.
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Simply reset your pool next year and have your members log back in to pick again. Start your Survivor Baseball pool with us today.
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