Get Exclusive Access to Winning Sports Betting Picks for Free
Basically, don't let one tip below be the only way you pick your bets. Use them as pieces of a more comprehensive betting strategy based on your knowledge base. Paying attention to how a team makes most of their points can be important when looking at consistency.
A team that relies heavily on 3-point baskets is great, but it's a lot easier to go cold on shooting 3-pointers than it is on posting up and driving to the basket.
Keep this in mind when looking to pick game winners as well as if you are making bracket bets for the tournament in college basketball. The winning team in the NCAA tournament is almost never a team that makes most of their points from beyond the arc. Those teams are great to look at for upsets, but not for long-term consistency and deep runs. Fatigue plays a huge role in the success of teams in basketball. Unlike sports like football, teams play a lot of games and their schedules vary, often with multiple games throughout the week.
Take a look at how many games the team has played recently and if they're on a long road trip or something like that. If a team is playing their fourth game in five days, you can bet that they're going to be tired which means they'll be slower and less likely to perform well. Also, look at how far they have to travel for their games. If they are going cross country back and forth for every game, the travel is going to wear on them even more.
You should also take a look at what point it is in their season as the effects of this don't usually start coming in as heavily until after the first quarter of the season. The later in the season it is, the more this is going to be an issue and the more opportunities it will create for you. A popular betting strategy is to take a look at teams that are favored in an away game after getting blown out in their previous game. These teams are clearly strong enough in talent to be still favored on the road after a big loss which means they have a lot of actual talent and substance that the oddsmakers still like.
These teams are also going to be fired up after getting embarrassed. No one likes to lose at home in front of their own fans. This seems to be true when it comes to basketball as well. A lot of this has to do with the emotional desire to impress at home, and a lot of it has to do with the other team usually letting off when they're up quite a few points. They'll put in second stringers and rest their big names because it only matters to them if they win, not by how many points.
Even though we care about the spread, teams playing the game do not. A win is a win, and a loss is a loss to them. One of the best ways to dominate sports betting of any kind is to recognize that there are experts out there who are practical geniuses at sports betting. If you're one of them, this won't affect you as much, although it always helps to know what the other experts are doing.
If you see a line moving one direction after the public has bet heavily on the other side, you're probably witnessing the experts taking advantage of the uneducated public.
Historically, the general public has not been very smart when it comes to sports betting. They bet with their heart instead of their head way too often and are too eager to jump on trends that don't mean anything.
There's a reason sports books are so profitable. This creates a lot of opportunities for the expert bettors. Here's what we mean with an oversimplified example. Let's say the Orlando Magic are -6 points to win a game and they're playing the Knicks. That, and that sportsbooks adjust their odds according to the systems, makes it difficult to follow systems indefinitely. The sportsbooks are slower to adjust the odds in some sports versus other sports depending on the number of games played and the amount of money they take in from bettors.
Betting systems based on statistical analysis have been around for a while, however they have not always been well known. One group that was known for their accurate predictions was called The Computer Group. They formed in Las Vegas in and successfully wagered on college football and basketball games for years making millions. Michael Kent , co-founder and one of the lesser-known individuals of the group, would use his computer software to run through massive amounts of data, which then provided the group's network of bettors with useful information.
The network of bettors would then bet on games in which they had a statistical advantage as determined by the software. Billy Walters , who was profiled on 60 Minutes ,  was the most famous member of the group. Sports betting systems have not always been well trusted or liked by bettors. The stigma is that a sporting event has too many intangibles that a machine can't predict.
However, things have begun to change recently as owners of teams have begun to take notice of the value in statistics. Front offices have hired noted statistical analysts such as Jeff Sagarin.
Books like Sabermetrics by Bill James, and Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver , have begun to bring detailed statistical analysis to the forefront of sports betting systems. Blogs are now being written more frequently about the topic and sports handicapping services have made claims of great success using sports betting systems from advanced statistical research.
Determining systems is a matter of using computer analysis tools and extracting all the possible games that meet a bettor's criteria. Then the bettor analyzes the results of those games to make a determination if one team is favored over the other.
Regression analysis is a type of statistical technique used to determine the important factors that affect the outcome of the event.
In the case of sports betting this is usually done with multivariate linear regression. Because sports events are very complicated and there are many factors it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be able to accurately identify each variable that affects the outcome of the game.
Also, regression analysis assigns a "weight" to each factors that identifies how much it affects the outcome of the event. Regression analysis has become so sophisticated that some gamblers actually perform it as a full-time job. Professional gamblers don't win as much as you may think. In fact, people that make a living at gambling win just above So, imagine for a moment what it would mean to you if you had a way to increase your winning percentage even by a small bit.
Basketball Betting Tip No. Be a cold-headed bettor. We all have favorite teams, but that doesn't mean we have to bet them if the odds aren't in their favor. Don't let your emotions get in the way of your better judgment, more times than not, you are biased and can end up making a wrong decision. Successful bettors make good decisions based on solid data, accurate information and gut feel. Beating the spread takes a shrewd mind and the ability to make good decisions.
In hindsight it's important that you learn how to recognize what leads you to make winning bets. Mind the starting lineup. Make sure that key players are starting, because there's nothing worse than to place a bet too early only to find out that a star player is out on injury. Take betting trends with a grain of salt. Trends are informative, and some are worth looking at, but what happened in the past doesn't necessarily have much influence today or in the future.