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How to Calculate Football Odds

Innovative Statistics

Determine the number of favorable outcomes in a situation. Let's say we're in a gambling mood but all we have to play with is one simple six-sided die.

In this case, we'll just wager bets on what number the die will show after we roll it. Let's say we bet that we'll roll either a one or a two. In this case, there's two possibilities where we win - if the dice shows a two, we win, and if the dice shows a one, we also win. Thus, there are two favorable outcomes. Determine the number of unfavorable outcomes.

In a game of chance, there's always a chance that you won't win. If we bet that we'll roll either a one or a two, that means we'll lose if we roll a three, four, five, or six. Since there are four ways that we can lose, that means that there are four unfavorable outcomes. Another way to think of this is as the Number of total outcomes minus the number of favorable outcomes.

When rolling a die, there are a total of six possible outcomes - one for each number on the die. In our example, then, we would subtract two the number of desired outcomes from six. Similarly, you may subtract the number of unfavorable outcomes from the total number of outcomes to find the number of favorable outcomes. Generally, odds are expressed as the ratio of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes, often using a colon. In our example, our odds of success would be 2: Like a fraction, this can be simplified to 1: This ratio is written in words as "one to two odds.

In fact, we have a one-third chance of winning. Remember when expressing odds that odds are a ratio of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes - not a numerical measurement of how likely we are to win. Know how to calculate odds against an event happening. What if we want to know the odds of losing, also called the odds against us winning?

To find the odds against us, simply flip the ratio of odds in favor of winning. Remember, as above, that this isn't an expression of how likely you are to lose, but rather the ratio of unfavorable outcomes to favorable outcomes. How do you like those odds? Know the difference between odds and probability. The concepts of odds and probability are related, but not identical. Probability is simply a representation of the chance that a given outcome will happen.

This is found by dividing the number of desired outcomes over the total number of possible outcomes. It's easy to convert between probability and odds. Subtract the numerator 5 from the denominator The answer is the number of unfavorable outcomes. Odds can then be expressed as 5: Add the numerator 9 and denominator The answer is the total number of outcomes. Differentiate between dependent and independent events. In certain scenarios, odds for a given event will change based on the results of past events.

For example, if you have a jar full of twenty marbles, four of which are red and sixteen of which are green, you'll have 4: Let's say you draw a green marble. If you don't put the marble back into the jar, on your next attempt, you'll have 4: Then, if you draw a red marble, you'll have 3: Drawing a red marble is a dependent event - the odds depend on which marbles have been drawn before.

Independent events are events whose odds aren't effected by previous events. Flipping a coin and getting a heads is an independent event - you're not more likely to get a heads based on whether you got a heads or a tails last time.

Determine whether all outcomes are equally likely. If we roll one die, it's equally likely that we'll get any of the numbers 1 - 6. However, if we roll two dice and add their numbers together, though there's a chance we'll get anything from 2 to 12, not every outcome is equally likely. There's only one way to make 2 - by rolling two 1's - and there's only one way to make 12 - by rolling two 6's. By contrast, there are many ways to make a seven. For instance, you could roll a 1 and a 6, a 2 and a 5, a 3 and a 4, and so on.

In this case, the odds for each sum should reflect the fact that some outcomes are more likely than others. Let's do an example problem. To calculate the odds of rolling two dice with a sum of four for instance, a 1 and a 3 , begin by calculating the total number of outcomes.

Each individual dice has six outcomes. Take the number of outcomes for each die to the power of the number of dice: Next, find the number of ways you can make four with two dice: So the odds of rolling a combined "four" with two dice are 3: Your odds of rolling a "yahtzee" five dice that are all the same number in one roll are very slim - 6: Take mutual exclusivity into account.

Sometimes, certain outcomes can overlap - the odds you calculate should reflect this. For instance, if you're playing poker and you have a nine, ten, jack, and queen of diamonds in your hand, you want your next card either to be a king or eight of any suit to make a straight , or, alternatively, any diamond to make a flush. Let's say the dealer is dealing your next card from a standard fifty-two card deck.

There are thirteen diamonds in the deck, four kings, and four eights. The thirteen diamonds already includes the king and eight of diamonds - we don't want to count them twice. Thus, the odds of being dealt a card that will give you a straight or flush are In real life, of course, if you already have cards in your hand, you're rarely being dealt cards from a complete fifty-two card deck.

Keep in mind that the number of cards in the deck decreases as cards are dealt. Also, if you're playing with other people, you'll have to guess what cards they have when you're estimating your odds.

This is part of the fun of poker. Know common formats for expressing gambling odds. If you're venturing into the world of gambling, it's important to know that betting odds don't usually reflect the true mathematical "odds" of a certain event happening. Instead, gambling odds, especially in games like horse racing and sports betting, reflect the payout that a bookmaker will give on a successful bet.

To add to the confusion, the format for expressing these odds sometimes varies regionally. Here are a few non-standard ways that gambling odds are expressed: Decimal or "European format" odds.

These are fairly easy to understand. Decimal odds are simply expressed as a decimal number, like 2. This number is the ratio of the payout to the original stake. For instance, with odds of 2. Fractional or "UK format" odds. This represents the ratio of the profit not total payout from a successful bet to the stake. Moneyline or "US format" odds.

These can be difficult to understand. Remember this subtle distinction! In moneyline odds, a simple "" no plus or minus represents an even bet - whatever money you stake, you'll earn as profit if you win. While your mates are betting on teams based on their star player from the 90s, or how much they like their kit, you are betting on the star man of today doing the business and helping you to clean up using our betting tips! You will find live stats, live streaming, daily predictions and football tips, our expert level analyses of bookmakers or soccer news, therefore many tools are available to help you place the winning bets and increase your gains.

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