Winning Baseball Bet – Underdogs off a Low-Scoring Win
One of my favorite times to back underdogs is early in the year, as oddsmakers are still adjusting to the new rosters. This is also the only time of the year where all 30 teams are in the mix. Over the last 10 years, underdogs in the month of April have gone 1,, While that comes out to a mere The key when you find a strong angle like we have here with underdogs, is to try and spot situations where they excel.
Coming into the season, this system has gone These underdogs have a SU record of There is no doubt that, despite the game MLB schedule, division games have a lot more meaning to them. The teams within the division are rivals. So the games become a focal point and, under the right set of circumstances, small to medium home dog can deliver big profits! What the oddsmakers are saying in this case is that the team that is less than. Sometimes you have to outline data as you see above to get a feel for what is going on, and there may be an intent from the odds makers here to entice the wrong wager.
The MLB season is a long and winding road, and there are a lot of long road trips. It is always difficult to play on the road, especially as the season goes on, but remember: Do they respond in a big way, or are they too caught up in taking a breath, and seeing their families? We have our answer, as these teams have come up big! This applies mostly early in the season. Following the 3 primary criteria, on a day with a full slate of as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs on which to wager.
Odds can vary wildly from one bookie or site to the next, and you should shop around for the ones giving you the best possible odds on any particular game. For instance, if you're betting 5 games on a particular day, you may want to spread those wagers over 2 Web sites and 3 local bookies, depending on who's giving the best odds on each underdog. The Goal The simple objective is to bet only on baseball underdogs that haven't lost 3 or more games in a row and are playing against favorites that haven't won 3 or more games in a row and are starting mediocre pitchers.
Instead, your bets will be based on a percentage of your Personal Betting Bankroll, the Formula for which is below. Of course, the percentage will increase as your Bankroll builds. This means you bet 1. In fact, you would have to go 0 wins and 80 losses -- or 16 days without a win -- to entirely deplete your Bankroll. This means you would have to go 0 wins and 40 losses -- or 8 days without a win -- to go through your whole Bankroll.
This information is included in almost all newspapers' daily MLB standings. Under the Gun and the Total With Two Great Pitchers When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the "under" total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these "pitchers duels" often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.
To help you see how this works, I've included them in the real-life examples below, which feature an entire week from an actual MLB season using The Baseball Underdog System. Note that this week was chosen entirely at random as my collaborator, Nelson Williams, and I finalized this book for publication, not because it proved the System any better or worse than any other week might have.
You'll see that for Day 1, a Monday with a light MLB slate, I've included all the scheduled games, with explanations of why each game was either wagered on or eliminated, to help you get a complete understanding of how to determine if games meet the System's criteria. After Day 1, I've included only the games that were "plays," and their results.
Following each team in parentheses is its moneyline odds and starting pitcher. Result Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4. Result Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5. Not all days will be like this one, as you'll see, but there are upsets almost every day in baseball, and with The Baseball Underdog System, you zero in on teams with the best chances to pull them off. Note that in the Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games, we stay away from potential losses because we stick with our criteria -- the Pirates were on a losing streak, and Milwaukee was too much of a long-shot underdog.
Louis , Simontacchi Result Cincinnati 7, St. And the "under" pick also earns you a tidy profit. If you're like me, you'll take a profit by going just any day, though.
Chicago Cubs Clement at St. Louis Williams Result St. Meanwhile, this is the 1 single day of the week with a losing record for picking "unders. These games are usually particular bargains. At this point of the season, for example, the Yankees were playing uncharacteristically bad baseball and Pettitte was in the midst of the worst losing streak of his career, so this wasn't a bad underdog play. Still, I will NOT include it in your profits, but show it here just so you realize that you should look beyond the numbers to the true game situations, because logic can occasionally overrule the "rules.
As you become comfortable with the System, you'll undoubtedly get a good sense of when to stray slightly from the Rules. Louis , Simontacchi Result St. Again, Colorado's pitcher was ranked No. Look for the games where a pitcher ranked right on the fringe of the Top 25 is pitching, and make sure there are additional reasons to bet on the underdog, other than the attractive odds.
So, how have you done for the week? Tips 1 Again, when playing moneylines, always use more than one bookmaker, whether you play with local bookies or on the Internet, so you can shop around for the best odds on every single game. Research may show an underdog pitcher has never won against his opponent, which would certainly red flag that game. You can never do too much homework. And trust your gut. If your underdog team has a pitcher on a woeful losing streak playing against a hot offensive team with a pitcher ranked No.
Teams, like individual players, go through slumps and streaks at the plate. Summing It All Up Baseball history shows that in 4 of 9 games, underdogs beat favorites. Alone, this doesn't give you enough of an advantage over your bookmakers, but with the 3 key criteria in The Baseball Underdog System, you'll have the edge you should need to consistently pick winners.