Sao Paulo; 22nd Sep 2018
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The money we make easily pays for the subscription. This service has helped me change my life for the better, both financially and the enjoyment I get from MMA. I am now betting for a living. I highly recommended this service. I knew nothing about gambling before I joined. Sportsbooks take a small percentage of each bet called the juice or rake to cover their costs and make their profit.
They're not in the business of gambling themselves so they want to ensure profit as much as they possibly can. On most even bets, meaning bets where the possibility of the outcomes is exactly the same, the sportsbook will pay you out at a rate of If the sportsbook got equal amounts of money on both fighters, they would profit no matter who won. This is their dream scenario. Now as you can imagine, this gets tricky when the fighters are not evenly matched, or the public likes one fighter more than the other.
In this situation, they will change the odds to deter bets from one side and encourage bets on the other side. They will release an initial line that they think will get even bets on both sides but will adjust it in real time based on how the best are coming in. For example, let's say that Anderson Silva is fighting Chael Sonnen and the sportsbook thinks Silva is going to win.
They release the odds like this:. If you remember from the earlier section on Moneyline Bets , this means that Silva is a big favorite and Sonnen is a big underdog. Let's say the public thinks that Silva is going to crush and should actually be a much bigger favorite, so they bet on him like crazy.
The sportsbook has to do something, or else they will stand to lose a lot of money if Silva wins. They will adjust the odds to make betting on Chael more appealing and betting on Silva less appealing. They might change to the following:. Subsequently, the payouts for Silva get worse in the second example.
The idea is they will keep moving the line this was until more money starts to come in on Sonnen. They will continue moving it back and forth all the way up until the fight to try and get equal money on both sides of the bet. This is the key to understanding the next few tips we are going to talk about.
Also, it's key to knowing when and if you should place a bet. For example, let's say you want to be on Silva to win. This might sound like a good bet to you as that's a somewhat decent return on what you think is a sure bet. While you still think Silva is going to win, this starts to be risking a lot of money for a small gain.
While this still could technically be a good bet, we like to stay away from way too high of a risk for such little reward bets. If you didn't look at or understand the odds and just bet based on who you think would win, you could be risking way more than you thought you were for not a lot in return.
If you're confused on the odds or want to see how to calculate payouts, check out the Moneylines section of this MMA hub where we break this down further. It can be tempting to want to place a bet on every single fight. For most of us, we think we're geniuses on everything, and it's no fun to sit and watch a fight we don't have action on. Unfortunately, this is not a winning mentality and is one of the worst strategies you can have.
It's entirely impossible for you to be able to do ample research on every fighter for every fight. When you skimp on research, you're just guessing, and now you're gambling instead of taking calculated risks. The best thing you can do is only bet the fights you have a strong prediction on and have the time to research. If you think you have an edge on a pick, go for it. For those of you that are action nuts, maybe place a small prop wager on the fights you don't have time to research just to keep you entertained.
That way you can bet a small amount that won't affect your bottom line but will still give you a sweat for a bigger payoff. There are way too many sports bettors that shoot themselves in the foot by betting too many fights. Don't be that guy or gal.
A lot of people neglect to look at where a fight is taking place because they assume every octagon or ring is the same. Unfortunately, this is not the case many times. There are two things that you need to be looking at in regards to location - distance traveled and altitude. The more important of these two is altitude.
If you've ever done physical activity in a higher altitude location, you already know what we're talking about. At higher altitudes, there is less oxygen which makes cardio a much more serious concern. If a fighter is in shape at sea level, they may struggle several thousand feet in the air like in Denver or a city like that.
To combat this, some fighters will move their training camps to higher elevations to prepare and get acclimated.
Note that this takes more than a week or two for the fighters that just bounce out last minute. The second thing we look at is how far the fighter has to travel for the fight and how long before the fight they traveled.
If a fighter has to be flying the day before they fight or two days before, you can imagine jet lag might become an issue. Also, the further they have to travel, the worse the jet lag is probably going to be.
You could also look into the direction of travel and how it affects jet lag. To save you time, jet lag is worse when you are traveling east. Again, this is not a huge deal if they travel well before the fight, but it is something you are going to want to pay attention to in the cardio category. This one is a double-edged sword as following the news can be great and can be absolutely terrible at times.
The important part here is distinguishing between media hype and actual news that will affect the fighter. Sometimes this is really easy to do, but sometimes it can be challenging, specifically, the part about will the news affect the fighter or not. Let's look at some examples starting with the easier to distinguish and moving to the more difficult. Obviously, news piece one has no effect on the outcome of the fight.
The problem is that the media is going to hype it up like crazy and people are going to start betting based on that information. This is not smart. News piece two, on the other hand, is something that is going to have a real and measurable effect on the fighter and the outcome of the fight.
Let's look at a more confusing example. As we know from our first example, news piece two is extremely important and should be calculated into our betting picks.
News piece one, though, is a bit confusing. This is because, for some fighters, this won't affect them at all. They'll say good riddance and focus on the fight, or it might even motivate them more to fight harder. Other fighters, though, might crumble and break under the emotional weight of the situation.
Kids could be involved, and it could totally mess with their head and focus and destroy them in a fight. Ultimately, you are going to have to decide what news is important and what news should be disregarded.
Being able to do this will help keep you from getting caught up in the media hype and ignorantly betting with the public. This leads perfectly into our next tip we're going to discuss. As we just mentioned, the public has a huge tendency to bet with their hearts or according to news that's not really news. This creates a great opportunity for a smart sports bettor. Remember how we talked about the sportsbook moving the lines to try and get the same amount on each side?
Remember how we said they do this when too many bets come in on one side? Well, when the public goes nuts betting one side of a fight incorrectly, the odds on the other side of the fight become a lot sweeter. Bets that were too close for you to bet suddenly become great bets.
Bets that you were already betting become much more lucrative to put additional money on. If you see a line that you absolutely love, bet it right away. Don't worry about timing and miss out on what you think is a great bet.
If you see a line that you like a decent amount but think it might move, place a smaller wager at that rate and then if it moves in your favor bet more. If it doesn't move at all, you can always place the rest of the bet at the same odds, or if it moves the other direction, you don't have to bet anymore at all. Predicting if and when lines are going to move can be a bit of an art form. It's up to you to start learning what affects the public and what causes them to bet certain ways and when.
Remember, the lines don't move according to the entire betting public. They move according to the bets that particular casino or sportsbook has taken. The sportsbook couldn't care less what is going on at other books but only at their location or site.
If everyone and their mother is betting on Fighter A but at a particular sportsbook, they have a ton of fans of Fighter B that are betting on them, The odds at each place are going to be completely different. This conveniently leads into our next strategy tip.
This is without a doubt the most important tip we can give you not just for MMA but for any type of sports betting you do. Shopping lines can be the difference between being a profitable sports bettor or just a chump who loses. Shopping lines refers to the practice of checking multiple sportsbooks to get the best odds on a bet you are going to place.
It is extremely common for different books to have completely different odds on the exact same bet. Well, if you read our above tip, you saw that sportsbooks want to have the same amount of money bet on each side of a fight to ensure that they make money no matter who wins.
If all of the sportsbooks were owned by the same company, then the lines would all be the same. But because they are all independently owned and operate independently, the odds will be different.
Imagine you have a Brazillian fighter fighting an American fighter and you have a sportsbook in each country. As you might imagine, more people in Brazil are going to be betting on the Brazillian fighter. This means that the sportsbook is going to have to make the odds on the American fighter pay better to entice more action on that side.
The opposite will probably happen in the American Casino. So if you were going to bet on the American fighter, you would want to do it in Brazil if possible because you would get a much better payout. Now, this is pretty impossible unless you really want to fly all the way to a different country to place bets.