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A negative relationship is expected between the number of seats in trouble for a party and the number of seats actually gained by that party. See our on-topic statement here. Bari Weiss , New York Times. Today's Topics

Sunday, September 16

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Google and China--Made for Each Other. Is Donald Trump a Fascist? Stacey Abrams' Georgia Identity Politics. The Myth of 'Liberal Intolerance'. Trump Finally Makes a Friend. Chief Sees the U. Ending the Palestinian Exception. Democrats' Top-Secret Formula for Victory. Will the Republican Party Listen? Why Obama Is Great for Republicans. Feinstein's 11th-Hour Shot at Kavanaugh. Fracking Helped Make U. Lawmakers Never Learned From Lehman.

The Bank Bailout of Was Unnecessary. How Wall Street Avoided Justice. Reflections from a Hashtag. Nate Silver , FiveThirtyEight. David French , National Review. Patrick Leahy , Washington Post. Jonathan Last , Weekly Standard.

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This article is from mid-May. I think it's safe to say the playing field has changed a bit since then. It's best to select Montana and West Virginia as ineffective Republican candidates because Tester and Manchin will do much better than the model would predict for a regular Democrat. Democratic chances I believe, will also change drastically if there are two seats in Arizona. I feel that the elections will fail to bring about a clear Victor but rather indecisive for both parties.

This election can fail in the fact the Republicans won't be able to win the absolute majority they need and Dems will lose seats. The only way of things working for either party in their own favor is the health care bill.

If one is not passed and Obama Care fails economically then the Republicans can win an absolute majority while the populist revolt against the Dems for failing them and voting to fix health care effectively. And the same can be said if the Republicans pass a bill that doesn't do enough then the Dems can say the Republicans we're involved in some way yet this would be much harder to do in an affective Manor. I think lack of any improvements to healthcare will fall squarely on Republicans, because they hold all 3 branches of government, and it's pretty clear they are actively sabotaging Obamacare.

Dems can just do what the Republicans have for the last 8 years and say they have the solutions, but no power to enact them. Good that is one of the ways the Dems can win some elections but my only problem with my citation is that it underestimates Republicans in the rust belt. Also Dems can try and say they wanted to help on the Obama care replacement but Republicans didn't let them.

The only problem with this is that they are basically admitting that Obama is getting bad that it needs replacing. The only way they could pull that off is if they try and minimize that Obama is failing admittment. But Trump's stated plan, what he wanted from the beginning, was to let Obamacare fail.

What that means for taxpayers in Pennsylvania is even higher insurance costs.